DO NOT CRUSH OR BENT

Still pretty clear – even after translation.

That’s what the manufacturer printed on a very thin, minimally padded box.

The company I bought it from chose to ship that box inside a paper envelope. In the back of a delivery van, likely in a pile of other envelopes – some containing heavier items in much thicker packaging.

Which made me wonder: what are the economics behind that decision?

Granted, this was a $25 keyboard I bought after repairing a “dead” laptop I picked up for $12. With 64 GB of RAM, a 5.0 GHz CPU, and room for three SSDs, it was worth investing some time swapping parts. After adding salvaged memory and storage, I confirmed the system worked perfectly – aside from the keyboard damaged by the previous owner’s repair attempt.

But I digress. Back to the more interesting question.

When a warehouse team fulfills an order, does the system dictate the packaging choice? I started wondering about this earlier, when a fragile fish tank bulb I couldn’t source locally arrived in a similarly thin box – also shipped in a paper envelope. It was very easy to tell the bulb hadn’t survived, and I knew enough to be careful of broken glass and avoid getting cut.

Have the economics been modeled so that some percentage of items will survive, and of those that don’t, only a subset of customers will initiate a return? And beyond that, how many customers will simply accept the inconvenience and reorder?

There’s also the long-term question: what percentage of buyers will change their purchasing behavior after an experience like this? My guess is that number is extremely small. For many items, there simply aren’t equivalent alternatives with the same convenience and pricing.

Personally, I’ll probably continue ordering. It was a $25 item with free shipping on a qualifying order. If it turns out to be damaged, I can request a replacement and drop the return at the UPS Store next to the sandwich shop I already visit.

In fact, I haven’t even decided whether this one needs to go back yet. I’ll open it, test it, and see. I have nearly a month to return it, and I mostly use an external keyboard anyway. If it works, great. If not, the replacement process is straightforward.

Still, the underlying question remains: are these outcomes acceptable because the math works?

It’s one thing to reduce packaging thickness to lower per-unit costs. It’s another calculation entirely when choosing between a protective box and a thin envelope for a fragile item.

And now I find myself wondering how often shipping damage is not a mistake, but a tradeoff.

Perhaps this is just the curse of having taken some very good economics courses at Santa Rosa Junior College.